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How You Can Protect
Yourself From Terrorism
By Richard Speier

After the September 11 outrages, someone near and dear to me asked for this advice on how to protect yourself from terrorist attacks. This advice draws on decades of professional experience with the problems posed by weapons of mass destruction. You can find standard government advice from the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency at http://www.fema.gov.

Here are five practical suggestions:

1) KEEP YOUR PERSPECTIVE

In spite of the murder of 5,000 people on September 11, destruction is not the ultimate objective of terrorists. Their objective is to paralyze the onlooker -- you. Terrorism is theater. It acts on the ancient Chinese proverb, "Kill one person, frighten ten thousand." Unless you are at the immediate site of a terrorist attack, your worst injury is likely to be fright. Consider:

  • The World Trade Center attack -- the worst terrorist attack to date -- killed about 1 in 10 people in the Trade Center.

  • The Pentagon attack killed about 1 in 200 people in the Pentagon.

  • The Trade Center attack killed about 1 in 4,000 people in the Metropolitan New York City area.

  • The Pentagon attack killed about 1 in 30,000 people in the Metropolitan Washington, D.C., area.

  • Both attacks combined killed about 1 in 60,000 people in the US

  • The most widespread direct physical effect of the Trade Center attack was the shutdown of the US financial markets for four business days.

  • The most widespread indirect physical effect was the temporary grounding of civilian air traffic.

  • Even in Israel, which has been the target of terrorist attacks for over a year, the death toll has been about 1 in 30,000 Israelis.

Nations are now on the alert against terrorists, and new security measures will make it more difficult for them. So you are exceedingly unlikely to be killed by a terrorist. The terrorists know that. What they want to do is to weaken your will. Don't let them.

2) UNDERSTAND THE WORST A TERRORIST CAN DO

Okay, no matter what the statistics show, you still have nightmares about terrorism. So confront your worst nightmare -- terrorists using nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons. This threat becomes more likely as the states sponsoring terrorism themselves acquire such weapons and employ terrorists to fight an "asymmetric war" against stronger states.

But there are limits to such warfare. Here are some facts:

  • There are two types of effects to worry about from a terrorist attack: The immediate physical effects (at the site of the attack) and the downstream danger. For most mass destruction weapons the area of the downstream danger is much greater than the immediate area. But you can better protect yourself from the downstream dangers.

  • Terrorists could attack dams, dikes, or nuclear reactors and release destruction downstream. But there are relatively few such targets, and they will be heavily guarded in the coming war. Even if they are struck, the release of their dangerous forces may occur with a delay -- giving you time to reach safety.

  • It is unlikely that terrorists will get nuclear weapons. If they do, they will almost certainly be "small" nuclear weapons; and there will not be many of them. One nuclear weapon may exhaust the terrorists' arsenal. For such weapons, the most damaging immediate physical effects will be confined to a radius of about 2 miles (3 kilometers). The downwind danger is radioactive fallout. Depending on the weather, dangerous fallout could go downwind as much as 20 miles (30 kilometers).

  • If terrorists obtain mass destruction weapons, it is most likely that these will be chemical weapons. Even if everything works right with the weather, the delivery system, and the ability of the terrorist to master difficult technology, the immediate physical effects will be confined to an area smaller than that of a "small" nuclear weapon. And there will be no significant effects more than a few miles downwind.

  • The most widespread destruction would result from terrorists obtaining biological weapons (BW). This is easier said than done. BW requires great expertise to deliver effectively. Moreover, for practical BW, the danger only exists under the BW cloud -- not from infected people. Sunlight kills airborne biological agents, so they must be delivered at night. And the weather must cooperate (smoggy conditions, light wind, no rain) if a large area is to be affected. In a worst case, with perfectly prepared anthrax spores delivered with proper equipment from an airplane and cooperative weather, there would be some danger to life at a downwind distance of 300 miles (500 kilometers). It is more likely that the danger will extend no more than one-tenth this distance. After sunrise you need not be concerned.

  • Theoretically, terrorists could use a BW weapon that does not spread in a cloud but is transmitted from person to person, such as smallpox. But such BW is indiscriminate; terrorists would be as vulnerable as you.

3) STOCK UP ON A FEW THINGS

You are not likely to make productive use of your time preparing for an airplane hijacking or a truck bomb. But, if you are willing to prepare for something that may not be likely, you can do something to prepare for the most destructive weapons that terrorists might use.

BW is the greatest terrorist threat you should realistically worry about. It is also one of the easiest threats for you to protect against. You can do so by stocking up on a few items that have uses other than for terrorist attacks:

a) FACE MASKS. Go to a hardware store, and buy a mask used to protect your face from toxic dusts. Learn to fit one tightly to your face. A good one offers almost complete protection 10-30 miles downwind from a BW release. It will also protect you from the greatest danger of radioactive fallout (inhalation), especially if you limit the other dangers by washing such fallout off your body, clothes, and surroundings. And it will protect you from pollen allergies, flu epidemics, and the debris clouds of natural or manmade disasters.

The fancy names for these masks are "filtering facepiece particulate respirators" or "respirators for toxic/harmful dust". The best are rated for the percent of particles filtered out -- up to 99.97% -- rated P100 or N100 by the US government, with equivalent standards elsewhere. They cost $28 in the largest hardware chain in the US P95 or N95 respirators also offer a great deal of protection -- at a cost of $2-7 apiece. Even cheap masks to protect you from spray paints offer some protection far downwind.

It is essential that your face mask fit tightly. The more expensive ones fit better than the cheaper ones, but follow the directions to fit your mask properly. Once you've fitted your mask, you can sleep in it.

Someday governments may have detectors and warning systems in place to alert you to a BW attack. But you can do much to protect yourself without fancy warning systems. Depending on how far downwind you are from a BW release, it may take several hours for a BW cloud to reach you, so you may get warning from media reports. Put on your mask and keep it on if you learn via the media of a BW attack or attempted attack. In time of extreme tension, wear your mask at night if the weather is smoggy and you are in downwind range from a likely target.

b) ANTIBIOTICS. Have your doctor prescribe a 10 day supply of 500 milligram capsules of ciprofloxacin, which is a fluoroquinolone antibiotic. It is the current treatment of choice for the most likely BW, anthrax. Penicillin or doxycycline are good alternatives.

Do not take it unless you are reasonably certain that you have been exposed to BW. But you may take it, as your doctor recommends, if you have contracted other bacterial infections. Antibiotics are handy to pack when traveling to any destination where you may contract infections from unsanitary conditions.

c) BOTTLED WATER, STORABLE FOOD, FRESH BATTERIES IN A FLASHLIGHT AND A PORTABLE RADIO, AND FUEL IN YOUR AUTOMOBILE. These are standard precautions for natural or manmade disruptions. If a terrorist attack disrupts life, or if you are moving to a safer place, it is wise to have a few days supply of these staples.

4) KNOW WHAT TO DO IF THERE IS A TERRORIST ATTACK

The preceding sections suggest the basics: Keep your perspective, tune in the media for information, and be ready to use your face mask and other supplies.

But a question that will face you in an emergency is whether to stay where you are or to move. Here are some guidelines:

  • If you are not in range of the immediate physical effects of a terrorist attack (and you'll know that right away), consider whether you might be subject to downwind effects -- dust & debris (as in the World Trade Center attack), radioactive fallout, or a BW cloud. To judge downwind effects, decide which way the wind is blowing between the target and you. You should make it a point to know how the wind generally blows in your locality. And you may see the direction of a debris cloud on television (as people did on September 11).

  • If you are not in a likely downwind direction or within 3 miles of a conventional attack, 20 miles of a nuclear attack, or 300 miles of a biological release, stay where you are. With a well-fitting face mask, you can stay where you are if you are 30 miles (more-or-less) away from a BW release -- if you know where that is. But it would be wise to seal your room for the first night. If it's daylight or raining, there's no point in moving to avoid BW.

  • If you do decide to move, move at right angles to the wind direction. This is the fastest way out of danger.

5) DO YOUR PART IN THE COMING WAR

We are at the beginning of a multi-year war to deal with terrorism before terrorists further increase their capability for harm. You will have many opportunities to help, from participating in disaster-relief organizations to enlisting in the armed services.

The key is to start helping well before a disaster. You want to be trained and ready, not a burdensome amateur who distracts busy professionals.

Be calm, be determined, do your part. You'll protect yourself and all of us.

 

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